China both worries and hopes as US departs Afghanistan

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BEIJING – In the U.S. departure from Afghanistan, China has seen the realization of long-held hopes for a simplification of the power of a geopolitical rival successful what it considers its backyard.

Yet, it is besides profoundly acrophobic that the precise withdrawal could bring hazard and instability to that backyard — Central Asia — and perchance adjacent spill implicit their narrow, distant borderline into China itself and the heavy Muslim northwestern portion of Xinjiang.

The Taliban's takeover could surely contiguous governmental and economical opportunities for China, including processing Afghanistan's immense mineral riches, and Beijing has said it is acceptable to assistance rebuild the impoverished nation. But stableness volition beryllium required to reap astir of those benefits, and the contiguous effect of the American withdrawal has been much instability, not less.

“I deliberation Beijing volition play up the communicative of American fecklessness and diminution of Empire, coating this arsenic grounds of wherefore Beijing volition beryllium a amended steward for the Eurasian heartland,” said Raffaello Pantucci, an adept connected the portion astatine the Royal United Services Institute successful London. “But successful reality, I americium not wide that I spot that galore immense upsides for Beijing astatine the moment.”

Like galore nations, China is acrophobic astir the hazard of coercion from a Taliban-led Afghanistan. Beijing has repeatedly told the Taliban that the state cannot go a breeding crushed for militants to motorboat attacks successful Xinjiang, overmuch arsenic Osama bin Laden utilized it arsenic a basal to hole his 9/11 attacks connected the U.S.

A much proximate menace whitethorn beryllium the spillover of militancy into Pakistan and Central Asia, wherever China has invested heavy and sought to physique alliances.

“The Afghan Taliban person promised that they volition interruption from planetary violent forces, but we inactive haven’t seen however they volition bash this due to the fact that they are not officially successful power,” said said Li Wei, an planetary information adept retired from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

The Taliban could beryllium an incongruent spouse for China since their religion-based doctrine is diametrically opposed to Beijing’s imaginativeness of atheist regularisation nether the Communist Party that puts societal stableness and economical improvement supra all. That, however, has not prevented China’s yet pragmatic leaders from reaching retired to them.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted a delegation led by the Taliban's governmental leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, precocious past period and pressed China's hopes for stableness and an extremity to unit and violent threats.

Chinese officials and authorities media person been captious of what they telephone America’s “hasty” retreat from Afghanistan. “Taliban’s accelerated triumph embarrasses U.S., smashes image, arrogance,” work a header successful the state-owned Global Times newspaper.

Despite the rhetoric, Wang told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that China was consenting to enactment with the U.S. to beforehand the “soft landing” of the Afghan issue.

However, helium added that “the U.S. cannot, connected the 1 hand, deliberately curb and suppress China to harm China’s morganatic rights and interests, and connected the different hand, number connected China to connection enactment and coordination.”

President Joe Biden has said leaving Afghanistan volition hole America to woody with bigger imaginable threats, including from China.

“Our existent strategical competitors — China and Russia — would emotion thing much than the United States to proceed to funnel billions of dollars and resources and attraction into stabilizing Afghanistan indefinitely,” helium said this week.

Yin Gang, a researcher successful Middle Eastern Studies astatine the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the 2 countries stock a communal involvement successful a unchangeable Afghanistan.

“If Afghanistan achieves stability, it volition marque the U.S. look bully and China volition beryllium invited to enactment successful reconstruction,” Yin said.

China has chased commercialized ventures successful Afghanistan, but the prospects of specified projects reaching fruition look nary person present than they were implicit the past 20 years of the U.S. presence.

A consortium led by China Metallurgical Group Corp. bid $3 cardinal to make what is 1 of the world's largest copper deposits astatine Mes Aynak, promising besides to physique a powerfulness plant, railway and different infrastructure. Years later, enactment has yet to start, mostly due to the fact that of insurgent enactment successful surrounding Logar province.

China’s state-owned National Petroleum Corp. suspended lipid drilling successful the Amu Darya basin due to the fact that of a hold successful the signing of a transit statement with Uzbekistan to let crude lipid to beryllium trucked to China. The Afghan authorities aboriginal voided the drilling agreement.

China has invested heavy successful Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan, successful hopes of extending its Belt and Road Initiative to broaden China’s overseas scope by improving commercialized routes, but Afghanistan appears acold from acceptable to service arsenic a nexus successful that chain.

China's extended economical interests successful Pakistan and Central Asia could intelligibly beryllium impacted by immoderate violent resurgence successful Afghanistan, said Henry Storey, a governmental hazard expert based successful Melbourne, Australia,

“At the aforesaid time, China is loath to get progressive with immoderate boots connected the crushed presence, arsenic it does not privation to repetition the mistakes of the U.S. — oregon beryllium distracted from much pressing issues similar Taiwan," Storey said, referring to the land China claims arsenic its ain and threatens to invade.

Chinese scholars echoed the authorities enactment that China volition not insert itself into Afghanistan's home affairs, careless of however the concern develops. At a briefing this week, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said China would supply assistance to Afghanistan wrong its means.

While “hawkish” Chinese authorities media person portrayed events successful Afghanistan arsenic a triumph for Beijing and nonaccomplishment for Washington, that reflects “a mendacious consciousness of confidence,” said Meia Nouwens, a China adept with the International Institute for Strategic Studies

China mightiness not beryllium arsenic funny successful exploiting the U.S. withdrawal arsenic an accidental to prosecute economically with Afghanistan arsenic immoderate person suggested, she said, noting that Beijing has been slowing its overseas infrastructure investment.

The question of however to safeguard information of Chinese concern and unit besides looms large.

“For the infinitesimal ... Beijing volition bash the aforesaid arsenic astir different countries,” she said. “Wait and spot however things make successful Afghanistan.”

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Associated Press writer David Rising contributed to this communicative from Bangkok.

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