AP VoteCast: Youngkin viewed more favorably than Trump

3 years ago 212

Republican Glenn Youngkin did his champion to support erstwhile President Donald Trump astatine arm's magnitude successful his intimately watched contention for Virginia politician against Democrat Terry McAuliffe — a strategy that appears to person had the intended effect.

A bulk of Virginia voters accidental they person an unfavorable presumption of the erstwhile president, but Youngkin fares better. About fractional person a favorable sentiment of the erstwhile backstage equity executive, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of voters.

The system ranked arsenic the apical contented facing the commonwealth, with the coronavirus pandemic and acquisition trailing, and voters were divided successful their sentiment of President Joe Biden's performance.

Tuesday’s predetermination is the astir competitory statewide contention since Biden defeated Trump past year. It is wide seen arsenic a gauge of however voters are feeling up of adjacent year’s midterm elections, and for some parties it could supply a blueprint for campaigning successful plaything states.

Here’s a snapshot of what matters to voters, based connected preliminary results from AP VoteCast, a survey of much than 2,500 voters successful Virginia conducted for The Associated Press by NORC astatine the University of Chicago.

BIDEN’S PERFORMANCE

The governor's contention was seen by immoderate arsenic a trial of Biden's lasting truthful far. The president and his woman campaigned for McAuliffe successful the state, arsenic did different apical Democrats. Biden won Virginia by 10 percent points past year.

Now, 48% of Virginia’s voters o.k. of Biden’s occupation performance, portion 52% disapprove — a divided akin to U.S. adults nationwide successful caller AP-NORC polling. Voters besides are astir divided implicit Biden’s handling of the pandemic and the system arsenic well, but they thin much supportive of Biden connected COVID-19, 52% o.k. vs. 47% disapprove, and thin much captious of Biden connected the economy, 46% o.k. vs. 53% disapprove.

TRUMP FACTOR

While McAuliffe leaned connected his enactment for help, Youngkin didn't run with Trump oregon different GOP leaders. The governmental newcomer started the run with a blank slate connected argumentation and formed himself arsenic an affable, suburban dad. McAuliffe called him a “Trump wannabe," but it doesn't look similar each Virginia voters bought it.

While Trump is unpopular with a bulk of voters, astir fractional person a favorable sentiment of Youngkin. About 4 successful 10 person an unfavorable sentiment of the candidate.

About fractional accidental they person a “very” unfavorable sentiment of Trump, but lone 3 successful 10 accidental the aforesaid astir Youngkin.

About fractional of Virginia voters accidental Youngkin supports Trump excessively much, portion adjacent to arsenic galore accidental helium supports Trump the close amount. Most Youngkin voters — astir 8 successful 10 — accidental the campaigner supports Trump the close amount, but astir 1 successful 10 accidental helium supports the erstwhile president excessively much. About that galore accidental Youngkin supports Trump excessively little.

MCAULIFFE GETS MORE BLAME FOR ATTACKS

Overall, astir fractional of Virginia voters accidental they person a favorable sentiment of McAuliffe, a erstwhile politician and good known Democratic figure. About fractional clasp an unfavorable view.

In a precise contentious race, McAuliffe appears to person taken much of the blasted for the tone. Most voters deliberation the gubernatorial run featured unfair attacks from astatine slightest 1 candidate, but voters are somewhat much apt to accidental lone McAuliffe attacked Youngkin unfairly than the different mode around. Close to 2 successful 10 voters accidental some attacked the different unfairly.

TOP ISSUE

Thirty-four percent of Virginia voters said the system and jobs was the astir important contented facing the state, portion 17% named COVID-19 and 14% chose education.

Health care, clime change, racism, immigration, termination and instrumentality enforcement were each lower-tier issues.

Voters who ranked the system and acquisition arsenic the apical issues were much apt to backmost Youngkin implicit McAuliffe. Voters who identified COVID-19 arsenic the apical contented supported McAuliffe implicit Youngkin. McAuliffe besides earned the bulk backing of the astir 2 successful 10 who ranked wellness care, clime alteration oregon racism arsenic the apical issue.

SCHOOL DEBATE DECISIVE FOR MANY

Schools became a large absorption of the governor's contention for Youngkin, who localized a statement happening nationwide aft McAuliffe said during a statement that parents shouldn't “be telling schools what they should teach.”

A 4th of Virginia voters accidental the statement implicit teaching captious contention mentation successful schools was the azygous astir important origin successful their ballot for governor, but a akin percent identified the statement implicit handling COVID-19 successful schools arsenic astir important.

Thirty-five percent of Youngkin voters said the statement implicit captious contention mentation successful schools was astir important to their vote, compared with 14% of McAuliffe voters who said the same. Thirty-four percent of McAuliffe voters said the statement implicit handling COVID-19 successful schools was astir important to their vote, compared with 19% of Youngkin voters who said the same.

Most Youngkin voters — astir three-quarters — said the nationalist schoolhouse strategy successful Virginia is focusing connected racism excessively much. Among McAuliffe voters, conscionable implicit fractional said the absorption is excessively little, portion astir a 3rd said it’s astir right.

Overall, much voters said the nationalist schoolhouse strategy successful Virginia is focusing excessively much, not excessively little, connected racism successful the U.S., 43% vs. 31%. Another 25% said the absorption connected racism is astir right.

About 6 successful 10 Virginia voters enactment some disguise mandates for teachers and students successful K-12 schools and vaccine mandates for teachers.

The immense bulk of McAuliffe voters backmost disguise mandates for teachers and students and COVID-19 vaccine mandates for teachers successful K-12 schools. Among Youngkin voters, astir a 3rd enactment each policy, portion astir two-thirds are opposed.

IS VIRGINIA’S ECONOMY SOARING OR SINKING?

Youngkin, a erstwhile backstage equity executive, often asserted during the run that Virginia’s system was “in the ditch,” but a bulk of voters disagreed. Fifty-six percent said the state’s system is successful bully shape, compared with 44% saying economical conditions are poor.

Youngkin argued that Virginia’s grounds fund surplus was the effect of overtaxation arsenic helium campaigned connected a committedness to enact important taxation cuts.

McAuliffe countered that the surplus was owed to beardown economical maturation nether Democratic enactment and argued that Youngkin’s absorption to termination rights and blimpish presumption connected LGBTQ issues would hamper efforts to enlistee caller businesses to the commonwealth.

VACCINATED VOTERS

A wide bulk of voters successful Virginia accidental they are vaccinated against COVID-19, but McAuliffe voters are much apt than Youngkin voters to accidental so. About 9 successful 10 McAuliffe voters and astir 7 successful 10 Youngkin voters accidental they are vaccinated. About 3 successful 10 Youngkin voters accidental they person not received a COVID-19 shot.

MORE INDECISION THAN 2020

About 6 successful 10 voters accidental they’ve known each on whom they would beryllium backing the governor’s race. In the statesmanlike contention past year, three-quarters of Virginia voters said they knew each on whom they would back, though astir arsenic galore decided successful the past fewer days.

About 3 successful 10 voters present accidental they decided implicit the people of the campaign. Roughly 1 successful 10 said they were inactive deciding successful the past fewer days.

CONTINUED SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE VOTE COUNT

Although Virginia experienced nary large issues with its ballot number successful 2020, lone astir fractional of voters successful Virginia are “very confident” that the votes successful the predetermination for politician volition beryllium counted accurately. Another 3 successful 10 voters are “somewhat confident.”

Still, assurance is stronger among voters present compared with voters successful past year’s statesmanlike election: Just 25% past said they were precise assured votes would beryllium counted accurately.

MAJORITY BACK ABORTION RIGHTS

A bulk of Virginia’s voters — astir 6 successful 10 — accidental termination should beryllium ineligible successful each oregon astir cases, portion 4 successful 10 accidental it should beryllium amerciable successful each oregon astir cases.

Even so, a bulk of voters autumn into the middle, supporting termination successful immoderate instances but not each — a 3rd of voters accidental termination should beryllium ineligible successful astir cases and astir that galore accidental termination should beryllium amerciable successful astir cases.

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AP VoteCast is simply a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC astatine the University of Chicago for Fox News and The Associated Press. The survey of 2,655 voters successful Virginia was conducted for 7 days, concluding arsenic polls closed. Interviews were conducted successful English oregon Spanish. The survey combines a random illustration of registered voters drawn from the authorities elector record and self-identified registered voters selected from nonprobability online panels. The borderline of sampling mistake for voters is estimated to beryllium positive oregon minus 2.5 percent points. Find much details astir AP VoteCast’s methodology astatine https://www.ap.org/votecast.

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