EXPLAINER: What's behind Russia-Ukraine tensions?

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MOSCOW – Ukrainian and Western officials are disquieted that a Russian subject buildup adjacent Ukraine could awesome plans by Moscow to invade its ex-Soviet neighbor.

The Kremlin insists it has nary specified volition and has accused Ukraine and its Western backers of making the claims to screen up their ain allegedly assertive designs.

It’s unclear whether the Russian unit attraction heralds an imminent attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin has pushed for Western guarantees precluding NATO's enlargement to Ukraine, and the buildup could bespeak an effort to backmost up the message.

Here is simply a look astatine the existent tensions:

WHAT ARE THE ROOTS OF THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE STANDOFF?

Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula successful 2014 aft the country's Moscow-friendly president was driven from powerfulness by wide protests. Weeks later, Russia threw its value down a separatist insurgency that broke retired successful Ukraine's east.

Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to backmost the rebels. Moscow denied that, charging that Russians who joined the separatists were volunteers.

More than 14,000 radical person died successful the warring that devastated Ukraine’s eastbound concern heartland known arsenic Donbas.

A 2015 bid statement brokered by France and Germany helped extremity large-scale battles, but efforts to scope a governmental colony person failed, and sporadic skirmishes person continued on the tense enactment of contact.

Earlier this year, a spike successful cease-fire violations successful the eastbound and a Russian unit attraction adjacent Ukraine fueled warfare fears, but tensions abated erstwhile Moscow pulled backmost the bulk of its forces aft maneuvers successful April.

THE LATEST RUSSIAN MILITARY BUILDUP

U.S. quality officials past week determined that Russia is readying to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and astir fractional of them are already stationed on assorted points adjacent Ukraine’s borderline successful mentation for a imaginable penetration that could statesman arsenic soon arsenic aboriginal 2022.

Ukraine has complained that Moscow has kept implicit 90,000 troops not acold from the 2 countries’ borderline pursuing monolithic warfare games successful occidental Russia successful the fall.

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said units of the Russian 41st service person remained adjacent Yelnya, a municipality astir 260 kilometers (160 miles) northbound of the Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told lawmakers Friday that the fig of Russian troops adjacent Ukraine and successful Russian-annexed Crimea is estimated astatine 94,300, informing that a “large-scale escalation” is imaginable successful January.

Additionally, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian equipped forces says Russia has astir 2,100 subject unit successful Ukraine's rebel-controlled eastbound and that Russian officers clasp each commanding positions successful the separatist forces. Moscow has repeatedly denied the beingness of its troops successful eastbound Ukraine.

Russia hasn't provided immoderate details astir its unit numbers and locations, saying that their deployment connected its ain territory shouldn't interest anyone.

WHAT DOES MOSCOW WANT?

The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of failing to grant the 2015 bid woody and criticized the West for failing to promote Ukrainian compliance. The statement was a diplomatic coup for Moscow, requiring Ukraine to assistance wide autonomy to the rebel regions and connection a sweeping amnesty to the rebels.

Ukraine, successful turn, has pointed to cease-fire violations by Russia-backed separatists and insists determination is simply a continuing Russian unit beingness successful the rebel eastbound contempt the Kremlin's denials.

Amid the recriminations, Russia has rejected a four-way gathering with Ukraine, France and Germany, saying it's useless successful presumption of Ukraine’s refusal to abide by the 2015 agreement.

Moscow has powerfully criticized the U.S. and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with weapons and holding associated drills, saying that encourages Ukrainian hawks to effort to regain the rebel-held areas by force.

Earlier this year, Putin ominously said a subject effort by Ukraine to reclaim the eastbound would person “grave consequences for Ukrainian statehood.”

Putin has powerfully emphasized that Ukraine's aspirations to articulation NATO correspond a reddish enactment for Moscow, and besides expressed interest astir plans by immoderate NATO members to acceptable up subject grooming centers successful Ukraine. He said that would springiness them a subject foothold determination adjacent without Ukraine joining NATO.

Last week, Putin emphasized that Russia volition question “reliable and semipermanent information guarantees” from the U.S. and its allies “that would exclude immoderate further NATO moves eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that endanger america successful adjacent vicinity to Russian territory.”

He charged that “the threats are mounting connected our occidental border,” with NATO placing its subject infrastructure person to Russia and offered the West to prosecute successful substantive talks connected the issue, adding that Moscow would request not conscionable verbal assurances, but “legal guarantees.”

Putin's overseas affairs advisor, Yuri Ushakov, said the Russian person volition propulsion for these guarantees successful a video telephone with U.S. President Joe Biden acceptable for Tuesday, but galore erstwhile U.S. and NATO diplomats accidental immoderate specified Russian request to Biden would beryllium a nonstarter. Biden himself said Friday that helium doesn't “accept anyone's reddish line.”

IS THE THREAT OF A RUSSIAN INVASION REAL?

Russia rejected speech of an penetration crippled arsenic a Western smear run and charged the claims could conceal a Ukrainian volition for an onslaught successful the east. Ukraine denies specified plans.

Some observers construe the unit buildup arsenic a objection by Putin that Russia is prepared to rise the stakes to person NATO to respect Moscow’s reddish lines and halt sending troops and weapons to Ukraine.

Last month, Putin noted with restitution that Moscow’s warnings yet person immoderate traction and caused a “certain stress” successful the West. He added: “It’s indispensable to support them successful that information for arsenic agelong arsenic imaginable truthful that it doesn’t hap to them to signifier immoderate struggle connected our occidental borders that we don’t need.”

U.S. officials conceded that Moscow's intentions are unclear, but pointed to Russia's past behaviour arsenic a origin for concern.

Biden pledged Friday to marque it “very, precise difficult” for Putin to onslaught Ukraine, saying that a acceptable of caller initiatives coming from his medication are intended to deter Russian aggression.

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Dasha Litvinova successful Moscow contributed to this report.

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