EXPLAINER: Why is history repeating itself in Guinea's coup?

3 years ago 279

DAKAR – Many hoped that Guinea's landmark 2010 predetermination would yet bring the West African state a antiauthoritarian person aft decades of corrupt dictatorship.

Instead President Alpha Conde decided to instrumentality astir for a 3rd term, modifying the constitution truthful that the word limits nary longer applied to him.

His program to widen his regularisation prompted convulsive thoroughfare protests successful the capital, Conakry, past twelvemonth — and yet sealed Conde's destiny arsenic susceptible to a subject coup.

Now soldiers successful fatigues person erstwhile again crowded astir a array this week to broadcast a connection — conscionable arsenic others person done truthful galore times earlier successful West Africa — decrying a corrupt president who they accidental wouldn't person near bureau immoderate different way. Here is simply a look astatine however the portion has confronted subject coups similar this successful the past, and what scenarios could unfold successful the coming weeks.

HOW DID HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF IN GUINEA?

It started with an outburst of gunfire adjacent Guinea's statesmanlike palace conscionable similar earlier coups. Guineans who had lived done 2 different takeovers and conscionable arsenic galore assassination attempts stayed wrong and waited to spot who was truly successful power of the country. After hours of uncertainty and a radical of little-known soldiers appeared connected authorities tv giving themselves a French acronym name. They spoke of reconciliation but made nary promises connected however agelong they would instrumentality to manus powerfulness backmost to civilians. And past came the video of the deposed Conde, disheveled successful a half-buttoned garment and bluish jeans successful the custody of mutinous soldiers.

If it feels each excessively familiar, it’s due to the fact that a akin authorities alteration unfolded successful neighboring Mali conscionable a small implicit a twelvemonth ago. There excessively the junta decided President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita had overstayed his invited adjacent though his elected word was not yet completed. They yet promised to signifier elections successful 18 months' clip to instrumentality the state to civilian regularisation but it progressively looks similar that people volition beryllium missed.

ARE PEOPLE GOING TO ACCEPT THIS COUP D'ETAT?

State tv — present nether the power of the junta — has carried images of jubilant Guineans taking to the streets to greet the subject convoy. But the existent trial could beryllium whether forces loyal to the ousted president yet judge the coup oregon alternatively perchance signifier a counter-coup.

The West African determination bloc known arsenic ECOWAS already has condemned the powerfulness grab, and everyone from the United States to Russia has expressed interest successful varying degrees astir wherever this each could head.

WHAT CAN BE DONE TO RETURN GUINEA TO DEMOCRATIC RULE?

The African Union typically suspends the rank of a state aft a coup d'etat. And successful West Africa, erstwhile colonizer France inactive carries a batch of economical clout and tin besides enforce targeted sanctions.

But successful Mali's lawsuit it yet took the determination menace of economical sanctions to get the coup leaders to hold to transitional governments successful some 2012 and 2020.

The West African determination bloc, though, has its ain credibility problems. It allowed not lone Conde but besides Ivory Coast's President Alassane Ouattara to question 3rd presumption past twelvemonth contempt the law wrangling needed.

And contempt aboriginal threats, ECOWAS yet gave successful to the Mali junta's timeline for holding caller elections, accepting an 18-month hold aft earlier saying that ideology had to beryllium restored wrong a year.

WILL THIS END BADLY FOR GUINEA AND WEST AFRICA?

Guinea's mining manufacture already has taken a deed from the COVID-19 pandemic and concerns astir governmental stableness could origin overseas companies to reconsider their presence. Guinea's junta leaders went to large lengths Monday to reassure the planetary assemblage that they would grant each existing agreements, a motion aimed astatine keeping the country's indispensable mining revenues flowing.

The junta purports to beryllium acting connected behalf of the Guinean people, but already determination are concerns astir whether subject regularisation could pb to quality rights violations.

Security forces successful Guinea travel with a profoundly tarnished record: In 2009 they opened occurrence connected a radical of demonstrators protesting past coup person Moussa “Dadis" Camara's plans to tally for president and enactment successful power. More than 150 radical died and astatine slightest 100 women were raped successful a shot stadium, crimes that much than a decennary aboriginal person yet to beryllium tried successful court.

The bigger interest could beryllium what connection this week's coup volition nonstop different West African leaders seeking to enactment successful power, analysts say. There are fears that the caller coups successful Mali and Guinea could pb to much governmental instability successful the region.

Even if the ruling juntas successful some countries bash yet clasp elections, volition subject leaders simply rebrand themselves arsenic civilian candidates? For now, there's a much contiguous interest successful Guinea: Do others successful the subject deliberation they should beryllium steering the country's fate?

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