Vaccines, masks? Japan puzzling over sudden virus success

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TOKYO – Almost overnight, Japan has go a stunning, and somewhat mysterious, coronavirus occurrence story.

Daily caller COVID-19 cases person plummeted from a mid-August highest of astir 6,000 successful Tokyo, with caseloads successful the densely populated superior present routinely beneath 100, an 11-month low.

The bars are packed, the trains are crowded, and the temper is celebratory, contempt a wide bafflement implicit what, exactly, is down the crisp drop.

Japan, dissimilar different places successful Europe and Asia, has ne'er had thing adjacent to a lockdown, conscionable a bid of comparatively toothless states of emergency.

Some imaginable factors successful Japan's occurrence see a belated but remarkably accelerated vaccination campaign, an emptying retired of galore nightlife areas arsenic fears dispersed during the caller surge successful cases, a wide practice, good earlier the pandemic, of wearing masks and atrocious upwind successful precocious August that kept radical home.

But with vaccine efficacy gradually waning and wintertime approaching, experts interest that without knowing what precisely wherefore cases person dropped truthful drastically, Japan could look different question similar this summer, erstwhile hospitals overflowed with superior cases and deaths soared — though the numbers were little than pre-vaccination levels.

Many recognition the vaccination campaign, particularly among younger people, for bringing infections down. Nearly 70 percent of the colonisation is afloat vaccinated.

“Rapid and intensive vaccinations successful Japan among those younger than 64 mightiness person created a impermanent information akin to herd-immunity,” said Dr. Kazuhiro Tateda, a Toho University prof of virology.

Tateda noted that vaccination rates surged successful July to September, conscionable arsenic the much infectious delta variant was spreading fast.

He cautioned, however, that breakthrough infections successful the U.S., Britain and different places wherever inoculations began months earlier than successful Japan amusement that vaccines unsocial are not cleanable and efficacy gradually wears off.

Japan’s vaccinations started successful mid-February, with wellness workers and the aged archetypal successful line. Shortages of imported vaccines kept advancement dilatory until precocious May, erstwhile the proviso stabilized and regular inoculation targets were raised to supra 1 cardinal doses to maximize extortion earlier the July 23-Aug. 8 Olympics.

The fig of regular shots roseate to astir 1.5 cardinal successful July, pushing vaccination rates from 15% successful aboriginal July to 65% by aboriginal October, exceeding the 57% of the United States.

Daily caller cases surged conscionable weeks up of the Olympics, forcing Japan to clasp the Games with regular caseloads of much than 5,000 successful Tokyo and astir 20,000 nationwide successful aboriginal August. Tokyo reported 40 cases Sunday, beneath 100 for the ninth consecutive time and lowest this year. Nationwide, Japan reported 429 cases Sunday for an accumulated full of astir 1.71 cardinal and 18,000 deaths since the pandemic began aboriginal past year.

So wherefore the drop?

“It’s a pugnacious question, and we person to see the effect of the vaccinations progress, which is highly big,” said Disease Control and Prevention Center Director Norio Ohmagari. “At the aforesaid time, radical who stitchery successful high-risk environments, specified arsenic crowded and less-ventilated places, whitethorn person been already infected and acquired earthy immunity by now.”

Though immoderate speculated that the driblet successful cases mightiness beryllium owed to little testing, Tokyo metropolitan authorities information showed the positivity complaint fell from 25% successful precocious August to 1% successful mid-October, portion the fig of tests fell by one-third. Masataka Inokuchi, the Tokyo Medical Association lawman chief, said falling positivity rates amusement infections person slowed.

Japan's authorities of exigency measures were not lockdowns but requests that focused chiefly connected bars and eateries, which were asked to adjacent aboriginal and not service alcohol. Many radical continued to commute connected crowded trains, and attended sports and taste events astatine stadiums with immoderate societal distancing controls.

The exigency requests person ended and the authorities is gradually expanding societal and economical enactment portion allowing diversion events and bundle tours connected a proceedings ground utilizing vaccination certificates and accrued testing.

To velocity up inoculations, erstwhile Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who near bureau recently, expanded the fig of wellness workers legally eligible to springiness shots, opened large-scale vaccination centers and promoted workplace vaccinations opening successful precocious June.

Kyoto University prof Hiroshi Nishiura told a caller authorities advisory committee gathering that helium estimates vaccinations helped immoderate 650,000 radical debar corruption and saved much than 7,200 lives betwixt March and September.

Many experts initially blamed younger people, seen drinking connected the streets and successful parks erstwhile the bars were closed, for spreading the virus, but said information showed galore successful their 40s and 50s besides frequented nightlife districts. Most superior cases and deaths were among unvaccinated radical successful their 50s oregon younger.

Takaji Wakita, manager of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, told reporters precocious helium is disquieted radical person already resumed partying successful nightlife districts, noting that the slowing of infections whitethorn person already deed bottom.

"Looking ahead, it is important to further propulsion down the caseloads successful lawsuit of a aboriginal resurgence of infections," Wakita said Thursday.

On Friday, caller Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said a preparedness program to beryllium compiled by aboriginal November would see tougher limits connected activities and necessitate hospitals to supply much beds and unit for COVID-19 attraction successful lawsuit infections soar successful a “worst-case scenario.”

He did not elaborate connected details.

Many radical are cautious astir letting down their guard, careless of the numbers.

Mask-wearing “has go truthful normal," said assemblage pupil Mizuki Kawano. “I’m inactive disquieted astir the virus,” she said.

“I don’t privation to get adjacent to those who don’t deterioration masks,” said her friend, Alice Kawaguchi.

Public wellness experts privation a broad probe into wherefore infections person dropped off.

An investigation of GPS information showed that people’s movements successful large downtown amusement districts fell during the astir recent, 3rd authorities of emergency, which ended Sept. 30.

“I judge the alteration of radical visiting amusement districts, on with the vaccination progress, has contributed to the diminution of infections,” said Atsushi Nishida, the manager of the Research Center for Social Science & Medicine Sciences astatine the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Science.

But radical headed backmost to amusement districts arsenic soon arsenic the caller exigency ended, helium said, and that whitethorn “affect the corruption concern successful coming weeks.”

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AP writer Chisato Tanaka contributed to this report.

Follow Mari Yamaguchi connected Twitter astatine https://www.twitter.com/mariyamaguchi

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