One year before Italy's next general election, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is facing a growing rebellion among the country's youngest voters. Opinion polls show that Italians aged 18 to 34 are moving decisively toward the center-left opposition, a trend that could spell trouble for her conservative coalition in a vote widely expected to be close.

The shift is all the more remarkable because Meloni once styled herself as a champion of the ordinary Italian, and her nationalist discourse appealed to a generation frustrated by austerity and political instability. In the 2018 general election, her party was still a small far-right force, but by 2022 it had become the largest party in parliament, in part thanks to support from young voters who saw her as a fresh face.

Since taking office in October 2022, Meloni's administration has not introduced any major economic measures aimed at improving the future prospects of young people, analysts say. Instead, her government has championed a series of law-and-order initiatives that disproportionately affect the youth. The combination has produced a dramatic cooling of enthusiasm for Meloni among a demographic that once showed significant support for her party.

Polls show a dramatic shift

Lorenzo Pregliasco, director of the polling institute Youtrend, said that young voters today clearly lean toward the center-left. His data shows that Meloni's coalition—comprising her far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), Matteo Salvini's populist League, and the more moderate Forza Italia led by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani—now attracts less than 30% of the voting intentions of people under 35.

By contrast, the opposition bloc, dominated by the Democratic Party (PD), the 5-Star Movement, and the Green-Left Alliance (AVS), is polling at nearly 50% in the same age group.

The erosion is even more striking when compared with earlier figures. At the peak of Meloni's popularity in 2023, a Youtrend survey showed that her party alone enjoyed roughly the same support among young voters as the entire governing coalition does today. In other words, the conservative camp has lost a substantial share of the youth vote in just a few years.

There is also a clear gender gap. Young Italian men are more likely to vote for the right, while young women generally prefer the left, according to a study conducted last year by Milan's Bocconi University. This mirrors a trend seen in other European countries, where young women have shifted leftward in response to issues such as reproductive rights, healthcare, and education funding.

Economic stagnation and the youth exodus

Lorenzo De Sio, a political science professor at Luiss University in Rome, attributes the deep hostility of the young toward the government to its inertia on economic policy. "Meloni has not implemented any significant economic reforms," he said. "That is not a problem if you benefit from the status quo, but it is very harmful for those who are least protected, and those are often the young."

The numbers paint a bleak picture. Italy has the lowest employment rate for people aged 15 to 24 among the 21 countries that use the euro, according to Eurostat. The country also invests less in education than almost all of its peers in the single currency area.

The gap in economic opportunity is stark. A young university graduate in Germany earns on average 80% more than an Italian graduate, according to the Bank of Italy. With limited prospects at home, tens of thousands of young Italians leave every year in search of better opportunities abroad. This brain drain has drained Italy of talent and contributed to the country's demographic decline.

The government, for its part, has insisted on the need to cut taxes and reduce bureaucracy, but critics note that little has been done to address the structural problems that keep Italian youth at the bottom of European rankings. Precarious work contracts, high youth unemployment, and skyrocketing housing costs in major cities have all made the transition to adult life increasingly difficult for the country's under-35s.

A law-and-order agenda aimed at the young

The government's security measures have touched a variety of groups, from prison inmates to migrants, but young people have often found themselves in the crosshairs. Meloni's first decree-law, issued in the wake of her taking office, included tough penalties for rave parties. The anti-rave provision, which allowed police to break up unauthorized parties without a court order, was widely seen by civil libertarians as an overreach.

Since then, the government has tackled "light" cannabis production, restricted street demonstrations, cracked down on squatters, and introduced stricter rules for juvenile delinquency. The ban on "light" cannabis, which contains low levels of THC and was seen by many young entrepreneurs as a promising business niche, was particularly unpopular. Hundreds of shops were forced to close or change their business model.

In November last year, a national student protest dubbed "No Meloni Day" brought thousands of people onto the streets. They were protesting against the security decrees, budget cuts to education, and Meloni's support for Israel during the conflict in Gaza. Although the protest did not shake the government, it demonstrated the ability of student groups to mobilize against its policies.

One of the most recent moves has been a draft bill to change the rules on the criminal responsibility of minors. Under the proposed legislation, Italians aged 14 to 17 who commit offenses would be considered fully responsible unless proven otherwise. Under current rules, a judge must demonstrate that a minor understood the implications of his or her actions.

The changes are likely to lead to more custodial sentences for teenagers. A previous decree in 2023, which stiffened discipline against underage offenders, has already led to a 50% increase in the juvenile prison population, according to Antigone, a prisoners' rights organization. Critics say simply locking up more young people fails to address the social and economic reasons that push some into crime.

A far-right challenger enters the fray

Meloni is also facing competition for the remnants of the youth vote from within her own ideological camp. "Futuro Nazionale" (Future National), an opposition far-right party founded in February by Roberto Vannacci, a former army general turned European lawmaker, is already polling at about 7% nationally.

According to Pregliasco, Vannacci's support is strongest among middle-aged men, but he also draws significant backing from young city-dwellers who oppose immigration and are sensitive to his promise to send thousands of migrants back to their countries of origin. "Vannacci is definitely doing better among young voters than the governing parties," Pregliasco said.

This creates a dilemma for Meloni: if Vannacci's party eats away at the conservative base, the right could split its vote, handing an advantage to the center-left. On the other hand, some analysts believe Vannacci may ultimately be a problem for the left as well, as he could attract disaffected young men who might otherwise stay home.

The referendum that changed the calculus

The impression that young Italians are simply apathetic was challenged by the referendum in March on a judicial reform championed by Meloni. The reform, which aimed to separate the career paths of judges and prosecutors, was widely seen as a flagship initiative of her government.

Turnout among voters under 35 reached about 67%, and 60% of them rejected the reform. In the overall population, turnout was 59%, with 54% voting no. The fact that young people turned out in large numbers to vote against the government suggests that they are not merely disengaged, but are increasingly ready to use their vote as a weapon against Meloni.

"The referendum showed the impact young people can have if they vote en masse," said De Sio. "At the next election, they could be decisive."

With a year to go before Italians head to the polls, the stakes could hardly be higher. Meloni's coalition and the center-left opposition are running neck-and-neck in national polls, both hovering around 45-46% of the vote. If the youth vote eventually swings decisively to the opposition, it could mark the end of Meloni's premiership and a profound realignment of Italian politics. And if not, the young will at least have demonstrated that they are no longer a silent bystander in the country's democratic life.

Source: Boursier.com News